Energy Crisis: Observing the Global Aftermath of the Russia-Ukraine War

“What is happening in Ukraine is an example of how disrupted our industries and global chains can be given they are very interconnected. We also need to look at where we are going to be supplied with alternate resources. This shifts our paradigm and forces us to come together to solve these issues at the global level and bring innovation to drive change in order to secure a stable future.” — Bram Govaerts (Director General of CIMMYT)

Russia is one of “the biggest players” in the global energy supply. The war between Russia and Ukraine has significantly impacted global energy supplies, resulting in an energy crisis (UN GCRG, 2022). Goal 7.1 of the Sustainable Development Goals sets an ambitious energy target of ensuring universal access to reliable, affordable, and modern energy services by 2030. Based on data from the United Nations, before the pandemic, there were still 789 million people who lacked access to electricity in 2018. Nearly three billion people, or a third of the global population, did not have access to clean fuels and cooking technologies by 2019 (World Bank, 2021). However, significant advancements have been made in the last decade, with a large proportion of the global population now having access to electricity. Up until 2019, there were 759 million people who did not have access to electricity from the number of 1,2 billion people in 2010. Even so, there are still inequality problems where the population in countries on the African continent experience an increase in electricity deficit. It is also estimated that in 2030, about 660 million people will still not have access to electricity (World Bank, 2021). An energy crisis or energy shortage is caused by a severe bottleneck in the energy supply to an economy. This edition of the Economix Review will provide a deeper understanding of the current energy crisis before and after the war. In addition, it will provide insight into how the war between Russia and Ukraine led to the global energy crisis. Furthermore, it examines aspects that can be approached to solve these problems as well as challenges that hinder progress in achieving universal energy access targets.

The Situation before The Russia-Ukraine War

The availability of energy supplies before the Russia and Ukraine war differed from the pre-pandemic period. In the pre-pandemic period, there was an increase in the production of gas, coal, oil, and various minerals (IEA, 2018). In 2018, Global natural gas production increased by 5.2% (B.P, 2018). Inter-regional natural gas trade increased by 4.3 percent. Global coal production rose by 4.3%. Global oil production increased by 2.2 million barrels per day (b/d). Cobalt and Lithium production rose by 13.9% and 17.6%, respectively, well more than their 10-year average growth rates. In 2019, gas production increased by 132 billion cubic meters (3.4 percent), with the United States accounting for nearly two-thirds of this increase (85 billion cubic meters). Global coal production rose by 1.5%, with China and Indonesia providing the only significant increases.

The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted the global energy market, causing carbon and primary energy emissions to decline at their fastest rate since the end of World War II (B.P, 2020). According to the International Energy Agency, the use of renewable energy is increasing, although the demand for other energy sources is decreasing. In 2020, Global energy demand is expected to fall by 4.5%. The decline was driven by an unprecedented drop in oil demand due to the lockdown around the world, which reduces transportation-related demand. Oil drop consumption accounted for about three-quarters of the total decline in energy demand. Oil consumption fell by a record 9.1 million barrels per day (b/d), or 9.3%, to its lowest level since 2011. Natural gas consumption dropped by 81 billion cubic meters (bcm), or 2.3%. Coal consumption fell by 6.2 exajoules (E.J.), or 4.2%. From the supply side, there has been a decline in the global energy supply. In 2020, there was a decrease in world oil production by 6.9% compared to the previous year. Natural gas production also decreased by 3.3% compared to 2019. Coal production decreased by 5.2% compared to the prior year.

To control the pandemic, world governments have started implementing social distancing and social contact policies that change people’s behavior patterns and habits from outdoor activities to home activities. This causes a decrease in the demand for energy due to a decrease in activities that require energy, such as transportation, production, etc. Recent studies show that world energy demand decreased (IEA), and people reduced mobility by more than 50% (Forster, PM et al.). The decline caused an economic downturn due to a decline in consumption and people’s activities. Global GDP in 2020 is estimated to have fallen by over 3.5%. According to the IMF, approximately 100 million people have been pushed into poverty due to the pandemic. However, the decrease in energy consumption also has a positive impact. The research results by Wang et al. show that the pandemic has significantly impacted the state of the air. The decline in oil consumption positively impacts the environment, where carbon emissions from energy use fell by 6.3%, to the lowest level since 2011.

There is a large amount of global energy dependence on Russian energy supplies. The foundation of the Russian economy is energy exports. Russia is one of the world’s top three oil producers, along with the United States and Saudi Arabia. In 2021, Russian crude and condensate output reached 10.5 million barrels per day. In 2021, Russia produced 762 billion cubic meters of natural gas and exported approximately 210 billion cubic meters. Russia owns the world’s largest gas infrastructure, which spans approximately 100,000 kilometers (62,137 miles). Russia is the biggest exporter of natural gas and oil to the European Union. In 2021, the E.U. imported more than 40% of its total gas consumption, 27% of oil imports, and 46% of coal imports from Russia. The energy represented 62% of E.U.’s total imports from Russia and cost €99 billion. Gas-fired power plants are flexible and can quickly produce the needed amount of electricity in winter. Gas is used to heat roughly half of the European households, and it powers a significant portion of the industry. Therefore, gas is an essential part of Europe’s energy system. Because the North Sea gas fields, which are particularly significant sources of natural gas production from the U.K. and the Netherlands, were exhausted, natural gas production in Europe dropped. The Netherlands then revealed that they were entirely shutting down their Groningen gas resources due to earthquakes. That reliance on gas implies a reliance on Russia. According to the E.U.’s Directorate-General for Energy, the EU is currently the greatest natural gas importer in the world. Russian gas is attractive to Europe because it is usually cheap, easy to transport, and almost always available.

The development of a nation’s economy depends heavily on its access to energy. Energy is extensively used in agriculture, and related industries and homes require it for heating, lighting, and cooking. As a result, it is one of the significant variables that affect how a country produces its goods and services, its competitiveness in the domestic and international markets, its balance of payments, current account deficits, and rate of economic growth. Higher energy prices typically result in worsened terms of trade for nations that are net energy importers. Significant increases in energy prices can affect individual households because they spend a relatively large percentage of their income on energy. When energy prices surge, poor households are particularly hit hard in terms of inflation. The energy crisis will significantly impact numerous jobs that depend on energy, even if some jobs use energy directly while others do so indirectly. As a result, many people will lose their jobs, particularly in some specific industries. Therefore, when many countries in the world rely on energy from Russia, especially European countries when a supply shock occurs from Russian energy, it can shake the country’s economy because of its heavy reliance on Russian energy. This will also be further exacerbated by the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, which has slowed the global economy and increased poverty, inequality, and unemployment.

The Situation after The Russia-Ukraine War

After Russia invaded Ukraine, many countries started to deliberate on the current energy issue as there has been an acute energy security crisis occurring. The war between Russia and Ukraine forced many countries to reconsider their energy supplies. Some countries, such as the European countries which are very dependent, are calculating every step carefully since they possess the highest level of crisis awareness. The United States–which is part of the biggest energy producers–and other International Energy Agency members have announced the release of millions of oil and liquid natural gas barrels to help these dependent countries. In response to the invasion, the energy-independent countries immediately planned to ban imports of Russian energy resources. The United States has banned all Russian oil and gas imports. Similarly, the U.K. has begun phasing out Russian oil imports and expects to be done by the end of 2022. Germany, which depends on Russian natural gas, has put a stop to the opening of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia. Furthermore, the E.U. has pledged to stop Russian coal imports by this August (Global Trade, 2022). In June 2022, European Union leaders also agreed to cut Russian oil imports by about 90% over the next six months.

The vehement geopolitical tension has created changes in the chain of Russia’s energy supplies. As oil and gas exports are Russia’s biggest revenue source, this certainly has a significant impact on Russia. Concerning the sanctions that were given, Russia retaliated by cutting off gas supplies to some European nations. While the injunction to restrict gas supplies to European customers will likely harm Russia in the long run, considering Europe is their biggest client, the oil ban will probably not hurt Russia in the short term. Russia still has other oil importers in Asia, namely China, which was given discounted prices. Russia boosted its oil exports by 6 percent in May compared with April (Politico, 2022). The world’s third-largest oil importer, India, also seemed to constantly increase its crude imports. Moreover, speaking about importing and exporting, logistics and shipping issues are also matters needed to be discussed. Since sanctions evasion is currently considered an administrative offense, many EU-based shipping companies are getting money for moving the Russian crude. They are using many techniques to hide it, such as diluting it at sea with other crudes and relabeling the cargo. Besides the shipping issue, these embargoes are affecting Russia’s oil production, and the country lacks significant oil storage capacity. This may force oil companies to stop operating and destroy the fields and wells.

The Challenges Towards Prices, Supply Chain, and Society

The decrease in energy supplies in global markets led the price to the peak. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine provokes disruption in the markets and geopolitics of energy as it drives the prices of energy to their highest level. The prices will likely go even higher in the future, forcing many countries to reconsider their energy supplies. The United States, United Kingdom, Canada, and others gave heavy sanctions on Russia because of the invasion. They ban Russian oil from entering their countries even though the United States and the United Kingdom depend heavily on these imports. However, the sanction did not have a big impact until the E.U. took part. If the E.U. decided to do the embargo, it would be difficult for Russia to find new customers because the E.U. imported around 40% of its natural gas, more than one-quarter of its oil, and half of its coal from Russia (2019). It is undeniable that Russia could find the other buyers, but they cannot sell them as much as they sell to the E.U.

Russia is an OPEC member, making this problem even more complicated. Any proceeding against Russia can endanger the alliance that is important to stabilizing the price of oil. Besides that, the United States is also one of the world’s biggest producers of oil, but their oil is only used domestically. The Energy Information Administration, U.S. production will only increase the output by an average of 800,000 barrels/day that simply can not cover the loss from Russian oil. On the other hand, the U.S. and some countries compromise to provide the E.U. with extra gas that covers around 10% and 15 billion cubic meters of gas, the total equal to 24% of the gas comes from Russia. The long-term benefit is reducing Russia’s dependency and diversifying reliable energy suppliers.

Russia and Ukraine war herding the disruption to the global supply chain. The Russian invasion disrupted the global supply chain because of the interconnected economies and businesses that impacted the growing supply chain crisis. Conflict in Ukraine ruins many facilities that trigger a breakdown of the supply route. Almost all the companies experience difficulties in managing the complex logistic challenges, such as logistic shortage, port congestion, long lead times, and record-high ocean freight rates. The war imposed constraints on the use of Russian transportation infrastructure to support manufacturing. Ocean shipping that goes through the Black Ocean becomes more challenging, and the trains moving the goods from China to Europe through Russia, Ukraine, or Belarus are no longer available. Though it is possible to ship by air, the cost is higher, especially for those who passed through the conflict areas, as the flights should be rerouted. The war also resulted in longer-lasting inflation due to the diversion that is more costly because it involves the long-distance transportation costs. Transportation costs will follow the increase in oil and gas prices, which puts pressure on the freight cost. Higher costs in transportation may lead to increased prices in commodities, and because of that many countries strengthen their internal manufacturing sector. Risks of transacting with international suppliers are very high, and they may consider buying materials from local suppliers even if it requires additional cost.

When community losses occur because of the energy crisis, the poor become poorer. Growing gaps between the richest and the poorest are one of the results of this rise in the prices of energy. The gap shows in response to changing patterns of car buying in many countries, wealthier people tend to buy new vehicles that are smaller or even electric so they can handle the higher petrol prices. The poor people who don’t have enough money should face the increased prices of petrol which make them even poorer than before. The high prices of energy are also herding the fertilizer crisis as the fossil fuel prices and industry consolidation, the price of synthetic fertilizer has doubled since 2021. It is because Russia and Belarus account for over 20% of the world’s fertilizer supply. Hence, it makes the farmers lose their well-being and gigs. Ways to solve the disruption to the fertilizer market is the use of substitute fertilizer. The Russia and Ukraine war created an adverse shock to inflation and activity.

The countries that have close and dependent economies with Ukraine and Russia have a particular risk of scarcity and supply disruptions. In the short term, scarcity has increased the prices since rising energy prices and the potential loss from supplies of food from Ukraine and Russia reinforce inflation effects and drive the prices of food and other commodities. Russia and Ukraine supplied the world with wheat, barley, more than 70% sunflower oil, and one of the biggest suppliers of corn. The war blocked 20 million tonnes of Ukrainian grain to the Middle East, North Africa, and parts of Asia, these commodities should go through Black Sea ports that are already blockaded by Russia.

Policies in Some Countries to Solve The Challenge

Like many other nations worldwide, China is experiencing an energy crisis. Since September 2021, high coal costs and inflexible electricity prices have caused shortages that forced local governments to implement rolling blackouts for energy-intensive industries. The energy deficit has been exacerbated by flooding in China’s central coal-producing provinces, a rise in global demand for Chinese goods following the end of the pandemic, and severe market distortions. The world’s tightening energy markets have been made worse by extreme weather conditions, production slowdowns, an overreliance on the production of green electricity, and the Russia Ukraine war. China has enacted several initiatives, including expanding electricity restrictions in at least 20 provinces and ordering their coal mining enterprises to expand coal production. China is also dedicated to investing in renewable energy. By 2020, the non-fossil fuel proportion of global power production is expected to rise from 35 to 39 percent, according to the 13th Five-Year Electricity Plan (2016–2020). The International Energy Agency predicts that China will account for 36% and 40% of the global solar and wind energy growth, respectively, over the next five years. According to Bloomberg, in May 2022, China also bought Russian energy, including oil, gas, and coal, for a total of 7.47 billion USD.

A serious energy crisis occurred in Germany, which relies on half of its natural gas and coal and more than one-third of its oil from Russia. It is complicated for this country to reduce the reliance on natural gas in power generation since before, they were a country with nuclear power. According to a report by the German National Academy of Sciences, Germany could survive until next winter without Russian energy with big efforts such as ramping up coal-fired power plants and promoting large-scale conservation and energy efficiency. In the future, it will be tougher, Germany will have difficulty diversifying its gas supply because it has no LNG terminal there, but energy policy and greenhouse gas emissions in Europe can be beneficial for them in the long term. The German government is also proposing the increase the share of renewable energy sources (RES) from around 40% to 100% by 2035. It gives hope for Germany to contribute to the reduction of its gas reliance and imports. On the other hand, the eastern of Germany, whose refineries rely on Russian oil (Schwedt owned by a consortium formed by Shell, BP, Total, Eni, and Rosneft; and Leuna owned by Total) were interrupted by this war. This can be handled with the efforts to modernize eastern refineries to make them able to process the other brand from those owned by Russia and increase the refineries in the western countries. Nevertheless, such changes and adjustments would consume much cost and time.

As for the United States, the nation is far less dependent on Russian oil than the European nations. That is why this energy-independent country immediately took action. To support Ukraine, the U.S would no longer accept all imports of Russian oil and gas energy. President Biden announced a U.S. ban on Russian oil and gas imports over the country’s invasion of Ukraine, a direct hit on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s primary revenue source. But, this conflict with Russia also raises U.S. gas and oil prices. The national average gas price was more than $4 per gallon for the first time since 2008. The oil price jumped to $129.91 a barrel. To limit the impact of higher prices, the U.S. and other International Energy Agency members announced the release of 180 million and 60 million barrels of oil, respectively, from April to October 2022. A reporter from CNN stated that although Russia’s attack on Ukraine is occurring several thousands of miles away from even the nearest American city, its economic impact will be felt by millions of USA households since the global economy and financial markets are interrelated (Egan, 2022).

Conclusion

The 2022 Russia-Ukraine war can be summarized in the words of Antony Blinken, the U.S. Secretary of State, as he stated, “it’s bigger than a conflict between two countries. It’s bigger than Russia and NATO.” Russia, which has an important role in the supplies of energy, especially oil and natural gas of the world, having them invade would undisputedly have a significant impact on the whole world. Supplies will decrease and it will be more difficult to be distributed throughout the world. These disruptions encourage prices to increase, while many countries are dependent on these energy supplies. As the price increases in the energy commodities, it also affects the other resources and will end up disrupting the supply chain. Some countries implement various policies to address the global energy crisis. China implemented electricity restrictions, expanded coal production, invested in renewable energy, and increased energy imports from Russia. Germany proposed the increased share of renewable energy sources (RES) from around 40% to 100% by 2035 to contribute to the reduction of its gas reliance and imports and modernize eastern oil refineries while increasing the refineries in the western countries. The U.S tried to cooperate with many countries and organizations to fulfill the need for energy resources and release the resources they have to help those in need. The global energy crisis has caused various problems that have exacerbated the conditions of underprivileged groups, such as increasing living costs, extreme poverty, and inequality. Therefore, cooperation and collaboration are needed to overcome the impact of the global energy crisis that arises from global economic and political insecurity.

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